News Service Florida Political Blog

Meet the Rubios, courtesy of Politico:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76474.html

President Barack Obama has a margin-of-error-proof lead against most of his potential Republican rivals in the key swing state of Florida, according to a new poll.

The survey, released by Public Policy Polling — a Democratic outfit based in North Carolina — shows Obama leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just four points, 47-43 percent. But every other candidate falls short enough of Obama’s lead that the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points doesn’t matter. The other candidates in the poll included as-yet-undeclared (and maybe not running) former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (52-40); tea party darling and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota (49-40); former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (48-40); and pizza magnate Herman Cain (48-37).

The poll was released a day after PPP released a survey of GOP primary voters that showed Romney in the lead for Florida’s delegates.

Every Republican candidate also has an upside-down favorability rating in Florida among voters at large — not to worry, Obama’s job approval rating is also upside-down — with Michele Bachmann’s split of 36 percent favorable, 37 percent unfavorable being the best. Palin has a whopping -21 percentage point margin (37 favorable, 58 unfavorable) and the highest unfavorable to boot. The highest favorable rating is Romney’s 45 percent, with his margin sitting at -4 percentage points.

Obama’s job approval is 48 approve, 49 percent disapprove — pretty close to his national numbers in the Gallup tracking poll now that the bump from the killing of Osama bin Laden seems to have evaporated.

Perhaps more interesting for Florida politicos is that Gov. Rick Scott appears to be hurting the Republican nominee. PPP asked voters if they were more or less likely to vote for the GOP candidate because of Scott’s actions; 40 percent said they would be less likely, compared to 26 percent who said more likely and 34 percent who said it wouldn’t make a difference.

Might naming U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio as a running mate help a prospective Republican candidate? Maybe not. The state’s voters are almost evenly split on whether that would make them more likely (31 percent) or less likely (35 percent) or neither (34 percent) to vote for the GOP nominee. Rubio’s job approval sits at 42 percent approve and 35 percent disapprove.

PPP polled 848 Florida voters from June 16-19. The full survey is here.

Stephen Moore, an member of The Wall Street Journal‘s conservative editorial board, says that talk of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., as the GOP’s vice-presidential nominee is more than just empty speculation. Apparently, at least one front-runner is actively considering tapping the first-term senator if he gets the nomination.

My contacts in the Mitt Romney camp are boasting: “Doesn’t a Romney-Rubio ticket sound great?” One senior Romney advisor told me: “We think that could be a dream ticket.” Operatives from the pack of other wannabes are thinking ahead to the same Rubio marriage with their candidate.

One obstacle, of course, is that Rubio has pretty flatly rejected talk of running for vice president. And there are sorts of reasons for floating the name of a popular senator in a swing state as a possible veep before the nominating race. But it looks like at least one candidate might be willing to test Rubio’s pledge, at least long enough to put the Florida senator on the short list.