News Service Florida Political Blog

The release of the state Senate’s redistricting plans late yesterday finally gave politicos, media-types and analysts of all stripes an official, concrete plan for how congressional and state Senate districts might look next year. And now the slicing and dicing of those plans, in an effort to figure out what they mean, finally begins.

The Orlando Sentinel focuses on the creation of Latino-friendly congressional and Senate districts in Central Florida, including a potential candidate.

The map also obliterates the District 24 seat currently held by Brevard Republican Sen. Thad Altman, R-Viera. Altman would be lumped into Haridopolos’ district. The new District 24 snakes from south Orange, through Osceola and Polk, following the Hispanic population corridor along Highway 417. It would be 50.5 percent Hispanic and is already drawing interest from potential candidates.

“I would seriously be looking at a state Senate seat if it maintained that current form,” said Rep. Darren Soto, an Orlando Democrat and the region’s only elected Latino lawmaker.

The Miami Herald ponders which incumbents might have to move to accommodate the new lines — though at least one isn’t afraid of the challenge: U.S. Rep. David Rivera, a Republican, who would be drawn together with U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, a Democrat.

“If this map ends up being the final map, then I look forward to earning his vote,’’ he said with a laugh. “He’s a great guy.”

The Florida Times-Union is all over the impacts for Northeast Florida, from the lack of a Clay County-centric seat to the potential boost to Aaron Bean‘s Senate candidacy (and the heartburn it could cause in Jacksonville circles) to the lack of changes for Sens. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, and Audrey Gibson, D-Jacksonville.

The Herald-Tribune looks at how the maps for state Senate chop up Manatee and Sarasota. Upshot: Good for former state Rep. Bill Galvano, bad for former State Sen. Pat Neal.

Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers look at the shrinking of districts held by U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney and state Sen. Joe Negron. Both would lose some western territory in their districts.

Among the politicos — Jason Roth calls the proposal “the Republican dream map.”

Under this first proposal, where Alachua county is grouped with Bradford and Clay counties, Barack Obama would solidly lose by about 8 pts. Why? Because even though Alachua county accounts for 54% of the voting population in this “new” Senate District, Clay county is considerably more Republican, than Alachua is Democrat.

And Democratic consultant Steve Schale breaks down congressional districts one-by-one — with a significant caveat.

First, this is the opening salvo in a long political process — one that is operating under new and largely uncharted rules.  As anyone who has gone through this before (I did in 2002), the only map that matters is the one that passes last, and passes court muster.  There will be lots of scenarios floated over the next few months, some real, some not

There appears to be a consensus in the Senate that the current Senate District 27, which crosses the state from the Fort Myers area on the Gulf to Palm Beach County on the Atlantic won’t look like that when lawmakers finish drawing maps in the current redistricting process. The district is currently represented by Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto, R-Fort Myers. The chairman of the Senate Reapportionment Committee, Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, said yesterday that the district  “stretches not only across the state, but stretches the imagination.”

Gaetz’s committee hopes to file a proposed committee bill Dec. 6.

For full coverage of the redistricting process, www.newsserviceflorida.com

Politico takes note today of the plight of several candidates for Congress in Florida – they’re running for districts that don’t yet exist. The piece features Republican Tammy Hall, who looks to be running for U.S. Rep. Connie Mack’s seat, but isn’t really, and Republican state Rep. Paige Kreegel, who is hoping to run for a yet-to-be created South Florida seat. Democrat Alan Grayson, running for a not-yet drawn central Florida seat, is also in the story.

One of the key debates over the Fair Districts amendments in 2010 was whether they might lead to the dismantling of districts like the one held by U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Fla. Brown’s district sprawls from Jacksonville to Central Florida, zagging back and forth to carve out enough black voters to create a district meant to help the state comply with the Voting Rights Act.

Brown and others argued that it could destroy those districts. (She and Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., have since filed suit in federal court to block the law.) Supporters of the amendments, including the Florida branch of the NAACP, said the new standards would actually strengthen the protection for minorities. In a public hearing Wednesday in Gainesville, a voice with a familiar name spoke up.

On Wednesday, Martin Luther King III, son of the slain civil rights leader, spoke on Brown’s behalf. He said there were campaigns under way in Florida to hinder the ability of minorities and the poor to vote or win office.

King began to discuss the restrictions on early voting and on the casting of provisional ballots that the Legislature and governor passed last session. Gaetz interrupted King and said to keep to the issue of redistricting. King then said he had concerns that the Fair Districts amendments could be an obstacle for African Americans and Latinos seeking office.

Oral arguments on the federal lawsuit, in case you were wondering, are scheduled for the end of the month.

Outside of maybe the redistricting meeting in Jacksonville — where Duval County is simply too big to fit in even a signal district for U.S. Congress — the call from public hearings for districts in Northeast Florida seems to be clear: Keep my county together, whichever county my county happens to be.

The Daytona Beach News-Journal summed up some of the requests the House and Senate redistricting committees faced as they travel the state’s upper right-hand corner.

For the past 10 years, Volusia voters have been divided among three congressional, four state Senate and six state House districts. Many of the more than 60 speakers — the highest total yet, through nine meetings — called for more compact districts that they believed would strengthen representation in their communities. …

“I’m familiar with how politics works, but I have to use a (voter ID) card to know who represents me,” said John Nicholson of Daytona Beach, one of the last speakers in the two-hour, 45-minute meeting. “If I’m confused, you can imagine how most people feel.”

Flagler residents also want to be kept together. As, apparently, do St. Johns voters, based on a contentious exchange recounted by The St. Augustine Record:

The only time [Senate Redistricting Chairman Don Gaetz, R-Niceville] became riled was when St. Augustine resident Pam Linder asked several questions. She wanted to know how many of the 30 plus legislators on stage represented more than four counties. Seven raised their hands. Then, how many took part in the 2002 redistricting. Three raised their hands. When she asked how many voted for Amendments 5 and 6, Gaetz sharply spoke out for the right of the secret ballot.

“This is still America,” he said. Nor would he allow a question about if any would be suing the state if redistricted. “We’re not going to put them on the spot.”

The new Fair Districts Amendments call for lawmakers to follow county lines as much as possible. But it’s also just one of the many factors that have to be weighed by legislators as they redraw the lines.

The hearings in Jacksonville yesterday on the state’s once-a-decade redistricting process focused largely on that, according to The Florida Times-Union: Process.

“These meetings should have been held earlier,” said Lisa Goller, one of about 300 in attendance at the afternoon meeting. “And we should be looking at the maps now.” …

The committee’s leadership said it simply wants public input prior to penning any maps.

“We did not want maps drawn entirely by politicians,” said Sen. Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, one of the committee’s leaders.

To some of the observers of the earlier joint meetings by the House and Senate redistricting panels, the arguments were relatively similar to what came before. But The Florida Independent says the echoes were louder.

The calls for maps were perhaps even more fervent than in other areas, due to one district that some say is the most gerrymandered of them all.

Democratic Rep. Corrine Brown represents Florida’s Third Congressional District, which stretches over 100 miles and includes portions of both Jacksonville and Orlando. Brown spoke passionately about the importance of keeping minority representation in Florida. Calling her district the “most popular” in America, due to the significant media attention it has garnered, Brown said that minority representation was paramount in Florida.

Meanwhile, at least one other member of Congress isn’t taking any chances. U.S. Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Fla., is asking supporters to turn out for public hearings in Daytona Beach this evening and Central Florida later this month. It’s about defeating the liberal agenda, she says in an email reprinted by The Buzz blog.

With so much at stake in this election, I will need your support to speak out and let your friends and neighbors know that you want a strong conservative voice like Sandy Adams representing you in Congress in 2012

Not Sandy Adams per se — that might violate the Fair Districts amendments. Just a strong conservative voice like Sandy Adams.

Marti Coley is worried about whether she will continue to represent Bay County, according to The Walton Sun. Coley, elected to replace her late husband in 2005, is the chair of the Bay County delegation. But the Marianna Republican told the Panama City Chamber of Commerce on Thursday that redistricting is likely to push her out of the county, despite the fact that county leaders want to retain a split between Coley’s district and the district of Rep. Jimmy Patronis, R-Panama City.

“I get just a little disheartened at some of the numbers I’m seeing,” she said.

The size of legislative districts likely will increase and Bay County has enough population to have its own legislative district, with some left over.

Chamber members, however, were concerned one representative would mean only one vote instead of the two Bay County is currently able to muster on a given issue. It also increases the county’s representation on various committees in the House.

Expect to hear a lot of complaints about U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown’s winding district when redistricting hearings convene in Northeast Florida next week. The odd-shaped district — created to comply with the Voting Rights Act — will likely be one of the more contentious issues in Jacksonville and its environs. Lawmakers meet Monday in Jacksonville, Tuesday takes them to St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, and they travel to The Villages and Gainesville on Wednesday. For a full list of meetings, go here. Many of the hearings will be webcast by the Florida Channel.

Members of Congress are still trying to figure out what to do about redistricting under the Fair Districts amendments, according to an Orlando Sentinel article out of Washington. But they’re beginning to get an idea of what they can’t do.

“Everyone has been pretty clear that if you hire a consultant or lobbyist, you can run afoul of Fair Districts,” said Charlie Keller, chief of staff to rookie U.S. Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Orlando. “We’re taking it easy and not really discussing it.” …

“If you have a lobbyist running around Tallahassee, you might be called in under deposition,” said Scott Barnhart, a longtime lobbyist and former campaign manager for ex-U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla. “I’m hearing that members are concerned [about redistricting] but they don’t know what to do to influence the process.”

The near-certainty of a lawsuit under Fair Districts makes the threat of a deposition a very real one. And there might not be a lot of upside for some members — as the Sentinel notes, Fair Districts or no, the Legislature is unlikely to hurt most Republican lawmakers.

Is House Redistricting Chairman Will Weatheford, R-Wesley Chapel, dropping hints about where Florida’s new seats in Congress will go? Well, if you read between the lines of an interview with the St. Petersburg Times editorial board …

Where will FL’s new congressional seats be? “The two new seats … that’s probably further down the road in fall. I can tell you the greatest population increases have been I-4-based, really pretty much from Tampa to Orlando, the southwest Florida corridor, down there in Collier, Lee county … and then in northeast Florida, kind of between Jacksonville and Orlando, along that Palm Coast, I-95 corridor. Those are the three that have had the most. So we have two congressional seats, obviously, not three. I don’t know for sure, but my guess would be those are the areas with the most population, they could potentially be where a seat goes.”

Not that any of that is particularly a surprise. Central Florida has been all-but-assured a new seat in the U.S. House based on the population growth, as Weatherford notes. And just drawing the lines based on population changes could be easier said than done; any changing lines in the Jacksonville-to-Orlando area would have to find some way to handle the seat of U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, D-Fla., whose winding district was created to comply with the Voting Rights Act.

Along similar lines, Weatherford said he’s trying to duck getting input from members of Congress and state lawmakers on what would be best for them — instead telling them to craft and describe their plans based on what would best for their districts. That’s a nod to the Fair Districts amendments voters approved last year, with an eye toward keeping politicians from carving up the state based more on ambition than other factors.

The interview includes a few more redistricting-based comments as well as thoughts from Weatherford, who is scheduled to take over as speaker after the 2012 elections, on the unpopularity of Gov. Rick Scott and when Weatherford might endorse in the Florida GOP primary.