News Service Florida Political Blog

Florida is expected to play a key role in President Barack Obama‘s efforts to win re-election in 2012. But Alex Sink, the former Chief Financial Officer and the Democratic gubernatorial nominee last year, thinks the state isn’t a slam-dunk for the president, according to POLITICO.

Former Florida gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink says it will be “hard” for President Barack Obama to win the Sunshine State in 2012, though she predicts Obama will ultimately be reelected.

“He’ll be competitive in Florida, but it’s going to be a challenging election for the president in Florida,” Sink said in an interview with POLITICO. “I believe he will be reelected.”

Sink, who narrowly lost last year’s election to Gov. Rick Scott, also continued to keep the door open to a repeat run in 2014 in her comments to the Washington-based publication, saying that she would “be open-minded about evaluating what the mood of the state is” after the 2012 elections.

The release of the state Senate’s redistricting plans late yesterday finally gave politicos, media-types and analysts of all stripes an official, concrete plan for how congressional and state Senate districts might look next year. And now the slicing and dicing of those plans, in an effort to figure out what they mean, finally begins.

The Orlando Sentinel focuses on the creation of Latino-friendly congressional and Senate districts in Central Florida, including a potential candidate.

The map also obliterates the District 24 seat currently held by Brevard Republican Sen. Thad Altman, R-Viera. Altman would be lumped into Haridopolos’ district. The new District 24 snakes from south Orange, through Osceola and Polk, following the Hispanic population corridor along Highway 417. It would be 50.5 percent Hispanic and is already drawing interest from potential candidates.

“I would seriously be looking at a state Senate seat if it maintained that current form,” said Rep. Darren Soto, an Orlando Democrat and the region’s only elected Latino lawmaker.

The Miami Herald ponders which incumbents might have to move to accommodate the new lines — though at least one isn’t afraid of the challenge: U.S. Rep. David Rivera, a Republican, who would be drawn together with U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, a Democrat.

“If this map ends up being the final map, then I look forward to earning his vote,’’ he said with a laugh. “He’s a great guy.”

The Florida Times-Union is all over the impacts for Northeast Florida, from the lack of a Clay County-centric seat to the potential boost to Aaron Bean‘s Senate candidacy (and the heartburn it could cause in Jacksonville circles) to the lack of changes for Sens. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, and Audrey Gibson, D-Jacksonville.

The Herald-Tribune looks at how the maps for state Senate chop up Manatee and Sarasota. Upshot: Good for former state Rep. Bill Galvano, bad for former State Sen. Pat Neal.

Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers look at the shrinking of districts held by U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney and state Sen. Joe Negron. Both would lose some western territory in their districts.

Among the politicos — Jason Roth calls the proposal “the Republican dream map.”

Under this first proposal, where Alachua county is grouped with Bradford and Clay counties, Barack Obama would solidly lose by about 8 pts. Why? Because even though Alachua county accounts for 54% of the voting population in this “new” Senate District, Clay county is considerably more Republican, than Alachua is Democrat.

And Democratic consultant Steve Schale breaks down congressional districts one-by-one — with a significant caveat.

First, this is the opening salvo in a long political process — one that is operating under new and largely uncharted rules.  As anyone who has gone through this before (I did in 2002), the only map that matters is the one that passes last, and passes court muster.  There will be lots of scenarios floated over the next few months, some real, some not

While Florida news outlets had long ago reported U.S. Rep. Connie Mack in the U.S. Senate race, he made it official for the cameras last night on Hannity. There wasn’t any news. But, with all the talk of Mack immediately gaining front runner status in the crowded Republican primary field, there’s been little attention to the eventual Democratic candidate, the incumbent, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

For what it’s worth, Roll Call maybe buries the news a bit in a long-ish story on the non-news of Mack’s announcement. Roll Call at the end of its story still rates the seat “Leans Democratic.”

Former Rep. Aaron Bean has a Senate campaign in full swing, and announced Monday that Jeb Bush will headline a fundraiser for the effort next month. The Dec. 16 event is at the Clarion Hotel by the Jacksonville airport. Bean, a Fernandina Beach Republican who served eight years in the House, is running for Senate District 5 in northeast Florida. The district is currently represented by Sen. Stephen Wise, a Republican from Jacksonville, who is term-limited.

The House Ethics Committee says it will decide whether to pursue an investigation into U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings by Jan. 11, though the panel cautioned in a press release that its extension of the time frame for deciding whether to investigate doesn’t indicate anything about what it may eventually decide. A former staffer of the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, Winsome Packer, claims she was the victim of “unwelcome sexual advances” by Hastings, a Democrat from Palm Beach County, according to press reports. Hastings was the chairman of the commission. The conservative group Judicial Watch has helped Packer in a lawsuit against Hastings.

Ethics Committee statement

Some of the nation’s Republican gubernatorial stars, including Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Mitch Daniels and John Kasich will speak this week at the Republican Governors Association meeting in Orlando.

Outgoing Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour starts things off at the meeting on a panel on the 2012 political outlook on Wednesday at the Hilton Bonnet Creek. That outlook panel also includes Jindal, the governor of Louisiana.

There’s a panel on Thursday morning touting Republican governors’ successes that includes Florida’s Gov. Rick Scott and Daniels of Indiana, whom Republicans had hoped to get to run for president. It also includes a couple odd choices in a panel titled “How Republican Governors Are Leading the Nation.” Ohio Gov. John Kasich has had his signature accomplishment – a limit on collective bargaining – overturned by voters. And Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is facing a recall campaign.

Other participants in the conference include New Jersey’s Christie, who was also heavily sought after as a presidential candidate, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, and rising stars Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Susana Martinez of New Mexico.

As Democrat Buddy Dyer seeks another term as Orlando mayor, he faces rumors that he will run for governor in 2014, the Orlando Sentinel reports.

Dyer, a former Senate minority leader who lost a 2002 race for attorney general, told the Sentinel that he plans to serve the full four-year term as mayor if he gets re-elected next spring. But Doug Head, a former Orange County Democratic chairman, told the paper,  “Everybody assumes he is moving on, and this is just a transition.”

Here is a link to the Sentinel story.

Sen. John Thrasher, R-St. Augustine, has proposed a bill for the 2012 session that would help Fidelity Investments, after unsuccessfully trying to get the idea approved in the state budget, The Florida Times-Union reports.

Thrasher wants to add Fidelity — which is based in Boston but has a large office in Jacksonville — to a list of providers in a retirement program for top university-system workers, the Times-Union reports. Fidelity is represented by Thrasher’s former lobbying firm, Southern Strategy Group.

Here is a link to the Times-Union story, which includes details of how Department of Management Services employees viewed the proposal.

As millions of travelers wait in airport-security lines this holiday weekend, Florida Republican Congressman John Mica thinks there is a better way.

Mica, the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, is reviving the idea of privatizing the officers who screen passengers and baggage, The Washington Post reported. Mica and U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., issued a report last week that calls for moving “airport screening operations to private contractors under federal supervision.”

The Post reports that Mica has received campaign contributions from companies that could benefit from such a privatization, but his office has said that did not influence his position. Here is a link to the Post story (log-in might be required).

Lawyers for Baxter Troutman tell The Ledger of Lakeland that they’ll file an amended lawsuit against Sen. JD Alexander in the Alico family feud case, after a circuit judge dismissed the case this week, but left Troutman with the option of filing a case with more specifics.

The Ledger has a story